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€5323 last time, now even more profitable P3 correct score
€5323 last time, now even more profitable P3 correct score
On the Champions League Saturday, one of our ColossusBets P3 syndicates won €5323.25. It cost €72. The delight of winning was shared by 30 syndicate members. Real Madrid vs. Liverpool and Nottingham Forest vs. Huddersfield were our ideas, as were the low scores. We combined of course all the possible +EV combinations, but the one, which happened to hit, was among the most profitable ones by expected value. We bet Real Madrid, Nottingham, and the different unders even with fixed odds.
Tonight, ColossusBets has an even more promising P3 correct score. The added, dead money alone makes the pool almost
profitable, but in addition, we have reasons to believe, that England will be overbet by the ColossusBets British customers.
Italy has recovered from its Euro2023 hangover. The current team seems motivated. Italy cannot field now the best possible line-up, but they are still a quality team, about as good as England in my power ratings.
England doesn't play their optimal eleven either, and they do not have the normal home advantage. So they win the match only about once in two tries. Because more than half of the lines bet in the ColossusBets P3 go via England victories, the three lions are now bad value, a minus EV investment. 0-0 and 1-1 draws and Italian wins are the base to profitable P3-combinations, especially Italy to win 0-1.
In the low box, both teams scoring 0 or one goals, is often a good marking in at least one of the three P3 correct score legs. that is the case today in the Ireland - Scottland -game.
Belgium might be more tuned than Wales in their match-up. However, the big Belgium wins might be too much bet now after their 6-1 fireworks against Poland. But the lower Belgium wins (along with the normal good scores 1-0 and 0-0) are probably the value-bets in the P3. Romeo Lukaku can be replaced decently in the Belgium line-up.
This P# is definitely a plus EV-bet. On our Vuoksenmaa – ESBC captain profile we bet only on syndicates, which are expected to be profitable in the long run. They are often optimized, small syndicates with a relatively small chance to hit, but they offer a good value because when they hit, they offer good dividends.
The syndicates from my other account, ESBC TV are mostly for the ”strike-it-rich” -pools like P6 correct score or P15 1-x-2. The variance in those pools is so big, that I cannot guarantee or verify the profitability of those syndicates. However, I bet them with my own money.
In the summertime, I’ll create far fewer football syndicates than in the mid-winter. There are much fewer pools, the edges are in general lower, and I and my crew will work less. There are fewer interested investors and action-bettors, too. So we’ll bet smaller and less frequently, but as responsible as ever.
Generally, the Nations League matches are very difficult to handicap. The national teams have only a few matches with the current squads to be evaluated. One cannot estimate the power ratings based on only a couple of games with the current squad, but on the other hand, if one looks many months back, the teams, their mental state, and occasionally even the coaches have changed. So to change the power rating too slowly is not good either.
We at European Sports Betting Consultants have optimized the way to estimate the strength of the national teams. The Saturday P3 rollover is tailor-made for us because we can even judge the fatigue, motivational, line-up, and tactical factors better than the general public. We have more accurate probability estimates than the betting market. We even build our syndicates in an optimized way – eliminating the too improbable and too popular combinations, betting only small, aggressive syndicates with a good expected return. We can bet a lot of them because there are so many profitable single lines, and we can search and group them with our experience and skill.
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