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Good ideas - but with good favorites only
Good ideas - but with good favorites only
There is £11.170 dead rollover money in the ColossusBets P6 jackpot on Cheltenham day 3, Thursday. That makes the P6 a good bet - providing one doesn't bet too improbable combination. If the whole pool is not big enough to offer sufficient odds for a minimum stake, the "over difficult" combination is unprofitable and should not be bet.
On the other hand, the favorites and the other top contenders in each race are very much included in the majority of the P6 tickets. So the tickets with only "natural" selections are bad bets, too.
Our key to our million winnings and yearly profits since 1979 in the racing pools betting has been reduced systems, where one combines an optimal number of favorites with an optimal number of less fancied horses.
The key is to understand the status of the favorite in each race. Is the favorite bet too much or too little compared to the winning probability? A sharp bettor overweight the good favorites in his/her positions and takes more 8and wilder) selections to the jackpot7placepot legs with vulnerable favorites.
Today at Cheltenham, the first race is between 3 Galopin des Champs and 1 Bob Olinger. The betting market has pushed 3 Galopin des Champs as a narrow 10/11 favorite against Bob Olinger's 11/10. Our research confirms that this odds movement from the very early prices has been efficient. In the ColossusBets market 3 Galopin des Champs might be an even better value, Even a few percentages make difference in the difficult six-race jackpot, so already for the degree of difficulty -control reasons 3 Galopin des Champs is a slightly better bet. However, it is not a big mathematical mistake to make the practical thing simpler and reduce the huge amount of tickets needed by taking brutally both to the coupons and sacrificing slightly the profitability of the position.
On the second leg, we don't take a strong stand. 1 Sire du Berlais is an OK favorite, but not more. We guess he will get about the right percentage of the money bet in the ColossusBets pools. 14 Winter Fog might be slightly too much backed according to our research. the same applies to 13 Alaphilippe. Therefore, here is a race to try to go wider and include the good lottery tickets like 9 Tullybeg (good Auren-ratings), 21 Kansas City Chief, 19 Born Patriot, 15 Whatsnotknow - or even bigger outsiders. But once again: they should not be combined with two other big outsiders. that would make the combinations less probable than 1/20.000 and therefore unplayable.
The Shishkin flop yesterday was a very traumatic experience for many of our ColossusBets placepot-syndicates yesterday, as we had many good syndicates winning with good odds now getting only 5/6. However, one has no reason to expect 1 Allaho to lose the Thursday ColossusBets jackpot/placepot leg 4. In horse racing, there is always a "basic risk", and I would happily lay Allaho at 1 to 2 odds-on. But for he ColossusBets jackpot proposes he serves a needed banker. Superior Auren-figures, no reported question-marks on anything and a small field, which makes the running trouble less probable, yes, the die is cast!
The fourth leg: 2 Flooring Porter has the best Auren-numbers and has a slightly more than 20% chance to win. Along with 4 Klassical Dream with around the same probability, they both play well with one or two outsiders elsewhere. In the trifecta and swinger, the combination with these two is playable, because if the pace remains steady, they both have an edge. The faster pace-scenario can be speculated in the ColossusBets jackpot with 9 Thyme Hill, 7 Paisley Park, 1 Champ and even a 33-1 shot 6 Lisnagard Oscar - but only with coupons without wild outsiders elsewhere. Lisnagard Oscar should not go off with 33-1, and he is for sure good value on the trifecta third row.
In race five our number suggests, that 13 Glancing Queen is the best of the three equally popular favorites. 4 Imperial Alcazar might be a fair joint favorite, but 14 Celebre D'Allen we would lay at the current odds 9-2. Here the less backed horses are not as "live" as in the races two and four, but with favorites elsewhere, 8 Coole Cody (22-1), 10 Grand paradise and 15 Adrimel explode the ColossusBets jackpot dividend more than their core probability deserves.
In the last leg, the biggest part of our Colossusbets syndicates go via 11 Dinoblue. Her numbers are not the race-top yet, but she has scope to improve a lot. Already for the betting technical reason it is OK to have the favorite overweighted in the last race. One can hedge easily via the ColossusBets cashout-option or laying the banker in the exchanges.
17 Mighty Blue has a decent Auren-rating and should not be 16-1 shot. But I keep repeating: maximum two outsiders should be included in one line.
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