Kategoria:
NHL Blogi
Detroit: A Tale of Unrealized Potential and Uncertain future
The Detroit Red Wings entered the 2023-2024 NHL season with high hopes of making significant strides. They managed to improve from 80 points in the 2022-2023 season to 91 points last season, but it still wasn't enough to break their playoff drought. They finished tied in points with the Washington Capitals, but lost the tiebreaker based on fewer regulation wins, which left them just outside the playoff picture in the competitive Eastern Conference.
While the improvement in point totals might seem encouraging, a deeper look into the Red Wings' underlying performance metrics reveals some concerning trends. According to ESBC Power AI ratings, Detroit consistently ranked lower than their actual results indicated. As the season progressed, the team’s defensive metrics weakened, with their expected goals against (xGA) steadily increasing. At the same time, their ability to generate quality scoring chances diminished, suggesting that their 91-point finish may have been buoyed by more than a fair share of luck. This kind of imbalance between ESBC Power AI ratings and actual results is not a promising formula for long-term success and suggests the team might have overachieved relative to its on-ice performance.
The offseason for the Red Wings was marked by some significant roster turnover. Notable departures included David Perron, Daniel Sprong, Robby Fabbri, and Jake Walman, who combined for 75 goals last season. To counter these losses, Detroit brought in Tyler Motte, Erik Gustafsson, and Vladimir Tarasenko. However, these additions are unlikely to fully replace the lost offensive production. As a result, the pressure will be on young stars like Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider to shoulder more of the burden and elevate their games further if Detroit hopes to make a push for the playoffs.
Another area of uncertainty is the goaltending situation. The Red Wings added veteran Cam Talbot (36 years old), and now have a trio of goaltenders under contract, including Alex Lyon (31 years old) and Ville Husso (29 years old). It remains to be seen how the goaltending situation will unfold and whether the front office has additional moves in mind to solidify this position.
Despite the public optimism around the Red Wings' young talent and their prospects for the upcoming 2024-2025 season, our analytical perspective remains cautious. The underlying metrics from last season, coupled with the offseason changes, suggest that Detroit still faces significant challenges in building a team that can consistently contend for a playoff spot. Without meaningful improvement in their defensive play and the ability to generate consistent scoring opportunities, the Red Wings could struggle once again in the tough Eastern Conference.
(Please read our Disclaimer for NHL Team Points Distribution Histograms.)
Here you can find all our (so far revealed) team previews
ESBC - Together more from the games!
Uutiset ja blogitekstit RSS-syötteenä